Hi everyone,

The letter went out before I could inform people of this but for those of
us who work with sectoral balances the UK government's policy is even more
toxic than the letter makes out in that they are actively and consciously
pursuing an increase in household debt-to-income levels to pre-2008 levels.
Here is my email from the PKSG list outlining this.


Hi all,

I guess that this is probably too late but the OBR -- which is the
government's own forecasting unit -- is now using the sectoral balances
framework. They are actually explicitly assuming a serious erosion in
household balance sheet to accommodate Osbourne's plans. So, it's much
worse than this letter makes out. The government understand the
implications of what they are doing. I've spoken with the OBR and they
recognise the risks. This is recklessness bordering on lunacy.

See pages 73 and 83.

Note the household deficits are being underexagerrated because of changes
in pension accounting that I think to be rather dubious. But even given
this the plans are crazy by any standard. I really think that the public
needs to be made aware of this. I am hoping to approach some people at the
BoE and maybe try to talk to the SNP or something. Any other suggestions
would be more than welcome. I've been doing a lot of work on the OBR and
the UK economy privately and the results are pretty shocking.



On Thu, Jun 18, 2015 at 8:44 PM, Reynold Nesiba <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

> If you are an economist and would like your signature added to the list
> please contact Class at [log in to unmask]
> On Jun 18, 2015, at 12:39 PM, Henry, John <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>  Does anyone know how to add one's name? The email link to Michael
> Lumpkin has been disabled and I see no "spot" in the blog posting that
> would allow this.
> Thanks.
> John
>  John F. Henry
> Department of Economics
> University of Missouri-Kansas City
> 5100 Rockhill Road
> Kansas City, MO 64110-2449
> Email: [log in to unmask]
>   ------------------------------
> *From:* AFEEMAIL Discussion List [[log in to unmask]] on behalf of
> Kelton, Stephanie A.
> *Sent:* Thursday, June 18, 2015 8:05 AM
> *To:* [log in to unmask]
> *Subject:* Fwd: Thankyou for supporting Class' letter to the Guardian
>    Our friends in the UK are hoping for more support from the academic
> community.   If you're inclined, you can join them in opposing the balanced
> budget madness by adding your name to their letter.
>  Stephanie
> Sent from my iPhone
> Begin forwarded message:
>  *From:* "Michael Lumpkin" <[log in to unmask]>
> *Date:* June 18, 2015 at 8:21:55 AM EDT
> *To:* "Michael Lumpkin" <[log in to unmask]>
> *Subject:* *Thankyou for supporting Class' letter to the Guardian*
>   Dear economist,
> Thankyou for offering your support to the letter published in the Guardian
> on 13th June regarding concerns over the Chancellor’s plan to legislate
> budget surpluses during ‘normal times’. The proposals represent an
> alarming, but unfortunately unsurprising, development in the UK
> government’s ongoing austerity project and one that we at Class feel
> required a robust, public intervention.
> We have uploaded the letter on our blog here:
> but are keen to see the list of signatories expand. If you know of any
> colleagues that might also like to contribute their academic gravitas to
> the letter please get in contact.
> Kind regards,
> Michael
> *Michael Lumpkin*
> Project Support Officer
> Class: Centre for Labour and Social Studies
> E: *[log in to unmask]
> <>*
> T: 020 7611 2569
> Tw: @classthinktank
> W:

Philip Pilkington

Tel: 0044(0)7857233946
Academic Publications: