Hi everyone,

The letter went out before I could inform people of this but for those of us who work with sectoral balances the UK government's policy is even more toxic than the letter makes out in that they are actively and consciously pursuing an increase in household debt-to-income levels to pre-2008 levels. Here is my email from the PKSG list outlining this.


Hi all,

I guess that this is probably too late but the OBR -- which is the government's own forecasting unit -- is now using the sectoral balances framework. They are actually explicitly assuming a serious erosion in household balance sheet to accommodate Osbourne's plans. So, it's much worse than this letter makes out. The government understand the implications of what they are doing. I've spoken with the OBR and they recognise the risks. This is recklessness bordering on lunacy.

See pages 73 and 83.


Note the household deficits are being underexagerrated because of changes in pension accounting that I think to be rather dubious. But even given this the plans are crazy by any standard. I really think that the public needs to be made aware of this. I am hoping to approach some people at the BoE and maybe try to talk to the SNP or something. Any other suggestions would be more than welcome. I've been doing a lot of work on the OBR and the UK economy privately and the results are pretty shocking.



On Thu, Jun 18, 2015 at 8:44 PM, Reynold Nesiba <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
If you are an economist and would like your signature added to the list please contact Class at [log in to unmask].

On Jun 18, 2015, at 12:39 PM, Henry, John <[log in to unmask]> wrote:

Does anyone know how to add one's name? The email link to Michael Lumpkin has been disabled and I see no "spot" in the blog posting that would allow this.





John F. Henry
Department of Economics
University of Missouri-Kansas City
5100 Rockhill Road
Kansas City, MO 64110-2449

From: AFEEMAIL Discussion List [[log in to unmask]] on behalf of Kelton, Stephanie A.
Sent: Thursday, June 18, 2015 8:05 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Fwd: Thankyou for supporting Class' letter to the Guardian

Our friends in the UK are hoping for more support from the academic community.   If you're inclined, you can join them in opposing the balanced budget madness by adding your name to their letter.   


Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

From: "Michael Lumpkin" <[log in to unmask]>
Date: June 18, 2015 at 8:21:55 AM EDT
To: "Michael Lumpkin" <[log in to unmask]>
Subject: Thankyou for supporting Class' letter to the Guardian

Dear economist,


Thankyou for offering your support to the letter published in the Guardian on 13th June regarding concerns over the Chancellor’s plan to legislate budget surpluses during ‘normal times’. The proposals represent an alarming, but unfortunately unsurprising, development in the UK government’s ongoing austerity project and one that we at Class feel required a robust, public intervention.


We have uploaded the letter on our blog here: http://classonline.org.uk/blog/item/guardian-letter-in-response-to-chancellor-george-osbornes-mansion-house-spe but are keen to see the list of signatories expand. If you know of any colleagues that might also like to contribute their academic gravitas to the letter please get in contact.


Kind regards,


Michael Lumpkin
Project Support Officer
Class: Centre for Labour and Social Studies

E: [log in to unmask]
T: 020 7611 2569
Tw: @classthinktank
W: www.classonline.org.uk


Philip Pilkington

Tel: 0044(0)7857233946